Carbon Training International

The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Nobuo Tanaka, opens the Agency’s latest report “How the energy sector can deliver on a climate agreement in Copenhagen” with some stark words “if the world continues on the basis of today’s energy policies, the climate change impacts will be severe. Energy, which accounts for two-thirds of today’s greenhouse-gas emissions, is at the heart of the problem and so it must form the core of the solution.”ⁱ

This report is a subset of the Agency’s World Energy Outlook published to support the negotiating sessions of the UNFCCC held last week in Bangkok.

The report outlines a 450 Scenario, which requires CO2 emissions related to energy generation to reduce to a trajectory which, when taking into account non-energy related emissions, stabilises concentration of all greenhouse gases at 450ppm.

Stabilising greenhouse gases at a concentration of 450ppm is the level at which average global temperature rise will be restricted to 2°C.

Parties at the Bangkok meeting were unable to reach agreement, but as noted below the UNFCCC remains confident of agreement by the CoP Meeting in Copenhagen in December. A major sticking point appears to be the US “attempt to kill the Kyoto Protocol’s content.ⁱⁱ

The US and other developed countries had asked the meeting to “change the text under the Kyoto Protocol from equity to equality in sharing responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions”.ⁱⁱⁱ

At the Closing Press Conference, UNFCCC General Secretary Yvo do Boer reported on progress. “World leaders set out a clear mandate to prevent dangerous climate change at last month's New York summit, he said. In Bangkok, their negotiators have shown rapid progress on concrete ways to implement the mandate, but are still hanging on to long-held differences.
Mr. de Boer stressed the urgency of raising ambitions and bridging the disconnect, adding that now is the time to step back from self interest and let common interest prevail.
With the next session in Barcelona only three weeks away, Mr. de Boer said he hopes negotiators will use the time to go back to those world leaders who called for a breakthrough in Copenhagen and get from them a mandate to resolve the key political issues that remain outstanding.” ^iv

The IEA report notes that the recent global financial and economic crisis “has had a considerable impact on the energy sector. CO2 emissions are expected to fall in 2009, which can help us achieve this 450 trajectory – but only if the right policies are put in pace promptly."^v

In releasing the IEA Report, Mr Tanaka noted “we need to act urgently and now. Every year of delay adds an extra US$500 billion to the investment needed between 2010 and 2030 in the energy sector."^vi

The full IEA report is available at http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf

The conclusion of the IEA Report in relation to the cost of delaying action should provide a strong incentive to Governments worldwide to take action. If the cost to Australia equalled our share of global emissions the cost of delaying action for Australia’s energy sector alone would exceed US$8 billion for each year of delay beyond 2010.

ⁱhttp://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf Foreword
ⁱⁱhttp://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/10/09/national/national_30114099.php
ⁱⁱⁱhttp://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/10/09/national/national_30114099.php
^ivhttp://unfccc.int/meetings/intersessional/bangkok_09/items/4967.php
^vhttp://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf Foreword
^vihttp://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=290